Marriott Dynamic Pricing For Points Stays Starts 29th March

Marriott has now confirmed that their ‘Flexible Point Redemption Rates’ AKA Dynamic Award Pricing starts on the 29th March 2022. This means from this date the current off-peak, standard, and peak redemption rates will no longer apply. For the rest of this year, most hotels will stay within their existing current peak and off-peak limits. In 2023 we will see the full effect of Marriott Dynamic Pricing with no minimum/maximum points per hotel.

How is the switchover to Marriott Dynamic Pricing going to work?

This year

Starting from the 29th March 2022 the current off-peak, standard, and peak redemptions caps will be removed. Thankfully, however, 97% of hotels will stay within their current peak and off-peak limits for the rest of this year. The other 3% (200 hotels) will see their maximum rate increase by up to 30,000 points per night. You can view the affected hotels here – https://docdro.id/SbO07ko – as you might have guessed the list includes most of Marriott’s aspirational/luxury hotels.

From next year

In 2023 ALL hotels will have no maximum cap! That means in theory you could be paying 100,000 points perhaps even more for a hotel that was previously category 3 & capped at 20,000 points. Where the damage is most likely to be is with the most luxurious hotels in category 8. The cap is currently 100,000 points per night, from March this potentially increases to 130,000 per night, so in 2023 with the full switch to Marriott Dynamic Pricing, we could easily see rates of 200,000+ points per night!

Are there any benefits from switching to Dynamic Award Pricing?

Well if you ask Marriott, yes! Apparently, the switch will increase reward availability (not that we’ve ever struggled to get a reward room.) But unless Marriott changes the way they pay hotels for redemptions it’s unlikely this will make any difference. At the moment Marriott pays a hotel a variable amount of money for your stay depending on how busy it is. If it’s empty then they will only receive enough to cover your stay e.g. cleaning & amenities. Whereas If it’s busy they will receive a much higher rate (presumably close to the cash rate.)

If Marriott doesn’t increase the amount of money hotels are paid when they aren’t full. Why would they open more reward availability?

The second area of concern is if Marriott moves to a ‘fixed’ value of a point, similar to schemes such as Nectar. If this was the case it would become inherently less attractive. One of the key attractions of loyalty schemes is the idea of ‘beating the system,’ where you’d get an outsized return on your points compared to the cash rate. Otherwise, you might as well just collect cashback and spend it wherever you like! There would certainly be no incentive in saving up for larger redemptions, you may as well earn and burn!

What I should I do to avoid the effects of Marriott Dynamic Pricing?

If you have any stays or potential stays coming up book them before the 29th of March! This way you will lock in the previous reward pricing (as long as you have enough points for the booking.) If you decide not to go (or on the off chance it’s cheaper after the changes) you can always cancel & rebook. If you aren’t booking 5 nights for the one night free consider booking each night seperately this way you can take off or add a night later on without having to reprice the entire booking. You can also lock in rates for key holidays dates before the change to Dynamic Award Pricing.

If you don’t have any plans to stay and don’t fancy sticking around to see what Marriott Dynamic Pricing is like you can transfer out to most airlines at a 3:1 rate here – https://www.marriott.com/loyalty/redeem/travel/points-to-miles.mi. Every 60,000 Marriott points would get you 25,000 airline miles (with a 5,000 miles bonus.) This means if you had 300,000 Marriott points you could convert them into 125,000 Avios. If you wanted to ‘cash out’ as close as cash as you can get you could convert them into Nectar points. This would leave you with 200,000 Nectar points worth £1,000 to spend in Sainsburys, Argos or eBay to name a few.

Conclusion

For 2022 the increases are limited to 3% of properties (basically all the aspirational hotels) and 30,000 points increase per night. Whilst this is a pretty huge devaluation in itself with a 3-night stay costing up to 90,000 points more, the real damage hits in 2023 with the full switch to Marriott Dynamic Pricing and no maximum points per night! Will we see rates of 200,000 points plus a night? When the current peak pricing is 100,000 for the most luxurious hotels it’s quite possible we could. What do you make of Marriott’s Dynamic Pricing?